← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 14, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
| Boavista win | 24% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Vizela −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 56% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 44% | 2.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
| 24' | ⚽ | Vincent Sasso · Boavista |
| 40' | ⚽ | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Vizela |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 65' | ⚽ | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 88' | ⚽ | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 19 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| coach days | 44.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1485.40 | 1497.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.64 | -35.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.60 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |