← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Miguel Nogueira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 42% | 40% | 2.29 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 32% | 3.32 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.03 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 30' | ⚽ | Pedro Aparício · Moreirense FC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rúben Ramos Ismael · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jeremy Antonisse · Moreirense FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | João Carlos · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 134.00 | 196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1501.36 | 1543.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.30 | -7.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 8.07 | 5.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.05 | 28.33 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.17 |