← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 08:45 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 87% | 1.25 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 14% | 9% | 7.55 | fair |
| Chaves win | 8% | 4% | 13.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −1.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Chaves −1.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 33% | 2.91 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Rúben Ribeiro · Chaves |
| 41' | 🟨 | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bruno Rodrigues · Chaves |
| 51' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 58' | ⚽ | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 75' | 🟨 | João Correia · Chaves |
| 85' | 🟨 | Paulo Victor · Chaves |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sandro Cruz · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 2402.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1904.41 | 1454.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.03 | -38.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 44.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.58 |
| league points | 31.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 11.02 | 12.22 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | 1.46 | -0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.08 | — |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.33 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 0.90 |