← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Thu, Dec 28, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: João Pedro Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 37% | 36% | 2.67 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 34% | 33% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 48% | 2.23 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Kialonda Gaspar · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 47' | ⚽ | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 66' | 🟨 | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
| 71' | 🟥 | Wagner · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jason · FC Arouca |
| 80' | ⚽ | Francisco Montero · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ignacio de Arruabarrena · FC Arouca |
| 90' | ⚽ | André Bukia · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| coach days |
| — |
| 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1514.26 | 1531.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.06 | 17.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 12.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 1.16 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.03 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.34 |