← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 17, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 56% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 19% | 20% | 5.51 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Portimonense −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 25' | ⚽ | Madson de Souza Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | João Camacho · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Sylvester Jasper · Portimonense |
| 47' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Costa · Portimonense |
| 56' | 🟨 | Filipe Relvas · Portimonense |
| 74' | ⚽ | Filipe Relvas · Portimonense |
| 76' | 🟨 | Wallisson Luiz · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Kobamelo Kodisang · Moreirense FC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| ⚽ |
| Matheus Aiás · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 169.00 | 1415.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1557.89 | 1455.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.07 | 6.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 1.22 | -1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.24 | — |
| state index | 0.55 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 0.94 |