← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Mon, Dec 11, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 43% | 33% | 2.28 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 29% | 33% | 3.29 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Moreirense FC +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 47% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 53% | 1.95 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Pedro Tiba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Leonardo Buta · Gil Vicente FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Fabiano Souza · Moreirense FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Martim Neto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Moreirense FC |
| 67' | 🟨 | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mory Gbane · Gil Vicente FC |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Wallisson Luiz · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 163.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1513.98 | 1557.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.72 | 40.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| league points | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.08 | 28.62 |
| state index | -0.66 | 0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.06 |