← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 10, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 51% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| Chaves win | 24% | 28% | 4.23 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Chaves −0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 56% | 1.84 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 44% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tiago Araújo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joao Marques · GD Estoril Praia |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bruno Rodrigues · Chaves |
| 61' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 70' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 74' | 🟨 | Bruno Langa · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Helder Morim · Chaves |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| ⚽ |
| Heriberto Tavares · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 100.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1466.49 | 1488.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.36 | -0.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.56 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -1.06 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 22.65 | — |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.30 |