← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 10, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: André Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 45% | 40% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 36% | 3.26 | value: +18% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 53% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 47% | 2.37 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
| 5' | ⚽ | Aderllan Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Amine Oudrhiri · Rio Ave FC |
| 29' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jhonatan · Rio Ave FC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Jason · FC Arouca |
| 69' | 🟨 | Aderllan Santos · Rio Ave FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | João Graça · Rio Ave FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fábio Ronaldo · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days |
| 39.00 |
| 1226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.49 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1519.12 | 1493.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.30 | 2.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.89 | — |
| state index | -0.14 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.78 |