← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 10, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Iancu Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 42% | 45% | 2.29 | fair |
| Boavista win | 30% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
| 31' | 🟨 | André Luiz · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 36' | 🟨 | Léo Cordeiro · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 52' | ⚽ | Léo Jabá · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kialonda Gaspar · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 72' | 🟨 | Erivaldo Almeida · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 74' | ⚽ | Martim Tavares · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Rodrigo Abascal · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | — | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1499.41 | 1508.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.67 | -65.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| league points | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.06 | -1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.77 |