← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 59% | 64% | 1.63 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
| Vizela win | 18% | 14% | 5.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela +1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Ortiz · Vizela |
| 56' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 72' | ⚽ | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 78' | 🟨 | Aleksandar Busnić · Vizela |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Escoval · Vizela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Cristián Borja · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bruma · Sporting Clube de Braga |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 7.00 | 1224.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1487.28 | 1761.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.44 | 18.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 11.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 1.88 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 30.97 |
| state index | -0.23 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 2.45 |