← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 3, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 36% | 43% | 2.69 | value: +15% |
| FC Arouca win | 35% | 28% | 2.79 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Boavista +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| FC Arouca +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Bruno Onyemaechi · Boavista |
| 2' | ⚽ | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 23' | ⚽ | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 39' | ⚽ | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bogdan Milovanov · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 49' | 🟨 | Bogdan Milovanov · FC Arouca |
| 49' | 🟥 | Bogdan Milovanov · FC Arouca |
| 55' | 🟨 | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
| 67' | 🟨 | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alfonso Trezza · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jason · FC Arouca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
| 81' | 🟨 | Berna · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 2.00 |
| 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1532.66 | 1495.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.62 | -52.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 21.21 | 21.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -1.18 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 26.89 |
| state index | -0.69 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.88 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.29 |