← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 65% | 67% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.69 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 15% | 13% | 6.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1 | 55% | 1.75 |
| Moreirense FC +1 | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |