← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: António Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.46 | value: +5% |
| FC Famalicão win | 14% | 16% | 7.45 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| FC Famalicão +1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 29' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 34' | 🟨 | Fábio Cardoso · FC Porto |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 50' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 77' | 🟨 | Martín Aguirregabiria · FC Famalicão |
| 80' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 81' | 🟥 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 87' | ⚽ | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 🟨 |
| Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Grujić · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Sánchez · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 731.00 | 2375.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1566.61 | 1912.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.51 | -20.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 16.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 21.00 | 20.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 2.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 0.84 |
| solidity v1 | -0.29 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.88 | 25.73 |
| state index | 0.11 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.67 | 1.53 |