← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 37% | 37% | 2.63 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 35% | 33% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.51 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 57% | 1.87 | value: +6% |
| Over | 48% | 43% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Madson de Souza Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Léo Cordeiro · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 51' | 🟨 | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | João Reis · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 62' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Moreirense FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lawrence Ofori · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kialonda Gaspar · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟥 | Wallisson Luiz · Moreirense FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| André Luis · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | — | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1508.58 | 1539.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.56 | 54.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.62 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.19 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.63 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.12 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.13 |