← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Nov 10, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 40% | 42% | 2.46 | value: +4% |
| Casa Pia AC win | 31% | 28% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +5% |
| Over | 45% | 40% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 14' | 🟨 | Joao Marques · GD Estoril Praia |
| 24' | ⚽ | Rafik Guitane · GD Estoril Praia |
| 32' | 🟨 | Neto · Casa Pia AC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Pablo · Casa Pia AC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 69' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Felippe Cardoso · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Beni Mukendi · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| ⚽ |
| Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 70.00 | 3266.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1452.36 | 1493.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.20 | -27.75 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 22.82 | — |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.66 |