← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: José Bessa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 45% | 49% | 2.16 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 28% | 24% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 52% | 1.99 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 14' | 🟨 | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 44' | ⚽ | Francisco Moura · FC Famalicão |
| 46' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 60' | ⚽ | Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 67' | ⚽ | Maxime Dominguez · Gil Vicente FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Martim Neto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nathan · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 703.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1555.54 | 1530.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.65 | 10.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.54 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 24.07 | 24.08 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.41 |