← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 74% | 75% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 15% | 6.30 | fair |
| Chaves win | 10% | 10% | 10.65 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +1.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Chaves +1.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +5% |
| Under | 37% | 30% | 2.67 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Rúben Ribeiro · Chaves |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rúben Lameiras · Chaves |
| 44' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 59' | ⚽ | Fredrik Aursnes · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 75' | 🟨 | Paulo Victor · Chaves |
| 77' | 🟨 | Bruno Langa · Chaves |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | João Mário · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 87' | 🟨 | António Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 90' | 🟨 | Issah Abass · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 64.00 | 491.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1492.91 | 1886.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.16 | 8.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 67.40 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 6.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.55 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 1.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.40 |
| state index | -0.25 | 1.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.76 |