← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Nov 3, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 80% | 88% | 1.20 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 13% | 9% | 8.12 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 7% | 3% | 14.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −2 | 51% | 1.91 |
| FC Porto −2 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 71% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 29% | 3.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Volnei Feltes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 29' | 🟨 | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 31' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 39' | 🟨 | Joao Marques · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Tiago Araújo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 55' | 🟨 | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 70' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 74' | 🟨 | David Carmo · FC Porto |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| 75' |
| ⚽ |
| Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 78' | 🟨 | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marcelo Carné · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2346.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.82 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1927.44 | 1433.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.35 | -24.95 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| league points | 22.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 6.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.44 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 1.25 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 23.12 |
| state index | 1.53 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.12 |