← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Oliveira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 67% | 69% | 1.43 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.83 | fair |
| Vizela win | 13% | 13% | 8.02 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela +1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.18 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 44' | ⚽ | Stephen Eustáquio · FC Porto |
| 57' | 🟨 | David Carmo · FC Porto |
| 64' | 🟨 | Pedro Ortiz · Vizela |
| 66' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Vizela |
| 72' | 🟨 | Francisco Conceição · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alberto Soro · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Borges · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| coach days | 332.00 | 2341.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 4.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1486.45 | 1924.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.87 | -13.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 47.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 22.25 | 21.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.40 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 26.40 |
| state index | -0.24 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.25 |