← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: Tiago Martins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 39% | 39% | 2.49 | fair |
| Farense win | 32% | 34% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Farense −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Mohamed Belloumi · Farense |
| 31' | 🟨 | Miguel Nóbrega · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Artur Jorge · Rio Ave FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | André Pereira · Rio Ave FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marco Matias · Farense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bruno Duarte · Farense |
| 47' | 🟨 | André Pereira · Rio Ave FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bruno Duarte · Farense |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Artur Jorge · Farense |
| 89' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| ⚽ |
| Claudio Falcão · Farense |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Graça · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rui Costa · Farense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1184.00 | 270.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.21 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1488.82 | 1479.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.13 | 5.10 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 21.94 | 22.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -1.07 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.54 |