← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 60% | 56% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.81 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 19% | 24% | 5.15 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Gil Vicente FC +1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.85 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Roko Baturina · Gil Vicente FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rúben Fernandes · Gil Vicente FC |
| 55' | 🟥 | Sikou Niakaté · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Maxime Dominguez · Gil Vicente FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pereira · Gil Vicente FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Abel Ruíz · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 71' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 76' | 🟨 | Álvaro Djaló · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 78' | ⚽ | André Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 82' | ⚽ | André Horta · Sporting Clube de Braga |
| 89' | ⚽ | Roan Wilson · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 119.00 | 1183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 3.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1526.06 | 1746.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.24 | 2.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 1.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 47.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 21.21 | 2.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 1.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.88 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 24.08 | 29.85 |
| state index | 0.12 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 2.54 |