← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 38% | 28% | 2.55 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 35% | 46% | 2.81 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.08 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Heriberto Tavares · GD Estoril Praia |
| 21' | 🟨 | Carlinhos · Portimonense |
| 31' | ⚽ | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 33' | 🟨 | Hélio Varela · Portimonense |
| 37' | 🟨 | Filipe Relvas · Portimonense |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vinicius Silvestre · Portimonense |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alemão · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Carlos · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 1365.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1449.13 | 1441.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.91 | -25.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 19.90 | 20.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.11 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.17 |