← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 8, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 81% | 85% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 12% | 8.39 | value: +5% |
| Portimonense win | 6% | 3% | 17.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Portimonense −2 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 71% | 1.50 | value: +6% |
| Under | 36% | 29% | 2.74 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Evanilson · FC Porto |
| 16' | 🟨 | David Carmo · FC Porto |
| 32' | 🟨 | Alan Varela · FC Porto |
| 60' | 🟨 | Alemão · Portimonense |
| 65' | 🟨 | Guga · Portimonense |
| 69' | 🟨 | Filipe Relvas · Portimonense |
| 77' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 81' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Carmo · FC Porto |
| 83' | 🟥 | David Carmo · FC Porto |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| Rildo · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Carlinhos · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2320.00 | 1345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -7.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.54 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1923.50 | 1450.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.54 | 32.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.50 |
| league points | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 8.91 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 1.09 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.59 | — |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.65 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.08 |