← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 38% | 31% | 2.58 | fair |
| Chaves win | 36% | 41% | 2.74 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.65 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Chaves +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 60% | 1.79 | value: +7% |
| Under | 46% | 40% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
| 26' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 29' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Gabriel Pereira · Gil Vicente FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Maxime Dominguez · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Leandro Sanca · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Martim Neto · Gil Vicente FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sandro Cruz · Chaves |
| 81' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rúben Ribeiro · Chaves |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| 🟨 |
| Rúben Ribeiro · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟥 | Rúben Ribeiro · Chaves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 36.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1489.24 | 1540.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.35 | 8.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| league points | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.99 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.02 |