← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 35% | 38% | 2.79 | value: +6% |
| Moreirense FC win | 35% | 36% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Rio Ave FC +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Fabiano Souza · Moreirense FC |
| 18' | ⚽ | João Camacho · Moreirense FC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Rodrigues · Rio Ave FC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Renato Pantalon · Rio Ave FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Costinha · Rio Ave FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | André Luis · Moreirense FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | João Camacho · Moreirense FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Moreirense FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Madson de Souza Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 83' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 26 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 🟨 |
| Madson de Souza Silva · Moreirense FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Wallisson Luiz · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1156.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.47 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1514.64 | 1493.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.20 | 17.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.01 | 8.21 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.20 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 27.87 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.88 |