← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Melo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 49% | 54% | 1.99 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| Chaves win | 24% | 19% | 4.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 46% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 54% | 2.09 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
| 35' | 🟨 | João Correia · Chaves |
| 45' | 🟨 | Weverson · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟥 | David Simão · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hugo Souza · Chaves |
| 53' | 🟨 | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 53' | 🟨 | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 64' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ygor Nogueira · Chaves |
| 85' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| João Correia · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1187.00 | 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1548.14 | 1468.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.24 | -51.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| league points | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | -1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.01 | — |
| state index | -0.16 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.43 |