← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 39% | 38% | 2.48 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +14% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Boavista −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 53% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 47% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Chiquinho · FC Famalicão |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 37' | 🟨 | Tom Lacoux · FC Famalicão |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 44' | ⚽ | Miguel Reisinho · Boavista |
| 45' | 🟨 | Martín Aguirregabiria · FC Famalicão |
| 53' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Abascal · Boavista |
| 65' | 🟨 | Afonso Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 67' | 🟨 | Francisco Moura · FC Famalicão |
| 68' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 23 | Fouls | 21 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio do Bessa Século XXI |
| ⚽ |
| Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 69' | 🟥 | Jhonder Cádiz · FC Famalicão |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ilija Vukotić · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 79' | 🟥 | Tiago Morais · Boavista |
| 90' | ⚽ | Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 668.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1576.28 | 1581.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.49 | 7.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 7.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -1.40 | 1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.82 | 24.39 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.59 |