← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Iancu Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 55% | 56% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.89 | fair |
| Portimonense win | 20% | 18% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Vizela −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 47% | 1.89 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Gonçalo Costa · Portimonense |
| 29' | 🟨 | Anderson · Vizela |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlinhos · Portimonense |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ronie Carrillo · Portimonense |
| 52' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Vizela |
| 58' | ⚽ | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 74' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Costa · Portimonense |
| 83' | 🟨 | Alex Méndez · Vizela |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Filipe Relvas · Vizela |
| 87' | ⚽ | Carlinhos · Portimonense |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 13 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | Portimonense |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| 🟨 |
| Carlinhos · Portimonense |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 303.00 | 1337.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1498.21 | 1436.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.28 | 4.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 47.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.90 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -0.30 |
| solidity v1 | 0.55 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.29 | — |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 0.99 |