← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 36% | 31% | 2.67 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 36% | 38% | 2.73 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.49 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Ygor Nogueira · Chaves |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mansur · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 42' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 45' | ⚽ | Léo Cordeiro · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 51' | 🟨 | Paulo Victor · Chaves |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aloisio · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 70' | ⚽ | Léo Jabá · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 72' | 🟨 | Steven Vitória · Chaves |
| 85' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kialonda Gaspar · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| 🟨 |
| Mansur · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mansur · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Pinho · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 23.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1469.54 | 1494.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -63.22 | -5.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 54.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 75.25 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.75 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 8.84 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -1.97 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.25 |
| state index | -1.31 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | — |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.14 |