← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: João Ferreira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 47% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 33% | 3.53 | value: +18% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 26% | 25% | 3.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Pedro Tiba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 13' | 🟨 | Pedro Álvaro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 15' | 🟨 | Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 39' | ⚽ | Maxime Dominguez · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 54' | ⚽ | Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
| 56' | ⚽ | Depú · Gil Vicente FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Maxime Dominguez · Gil Vicente FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Joao Marques · GD Estoril Praia |
| 65' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 🟨 |
| Félix Correia · Gil Vicente FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mory Gbane · Gil Vicente FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 78.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1519.94 | 1458.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.42 | 6.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 15.80 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.53 | 23.13 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.11 |