← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 9, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 48% | 55% | 2.04 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.71 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 26% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Moreirense FC +0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +0.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.85 | value: +8% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |