← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 3, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Carvalho
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 40% | 43% | 2.39 | fair |
| Chaves win | 32% | 28% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.53 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Chaves +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Moreirense FC +0.25 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 44% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 56% | 1.95 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |