← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Bruno Vieira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 38% | 36% | 2.62 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 33% | 30% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.31 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portimonense +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 58% | 1.83 | value: +6% |
| Over | 47% | 42% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Aloisio · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 14' | ⚽ | Ronald · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 16' | 🟨 | Maurício · Portimonense |
| 24' | 🟨 | Ronaldo Tavares · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 38' | ⚽ | Dener · Portimonense |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pedrão · Portimonense |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alioune Ndour · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dener · Portimonense |
| 77' | 🟨 | Johnstone Omurwa · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ronald · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portimonense | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Portimão |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Kikas · CF Estrela da Amadora |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| — |
| coach days | 1309.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | — |
| elo | 1423.21 | 1496.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.09 | — |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | — |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | — |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | — |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | — |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.91 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -1.36 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.50 |
| state index | -1.50 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | — |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 2.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 0.97 |