← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Fri, Aug 25, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: José Bessa
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 42% | 36% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +4% |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 28% | 33% | 3.36 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 62% | 1.72 | value: +6% |
| Over | 44% | 38% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand