← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Aug 20, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizela win | 43% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.36 | value: +6% |
| FC Arouca win | 28% | 28% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vizela −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 60% | 1.78 | value: +7% |
| Over | 46% | 40% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟥 | Matías Rocha · FC Arouca |
| 9' | ⚽ (pen) | Samu · Vizela |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nuno Moreira · Vizela |
| 39' | ⚽ | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 42' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bruno Wilson · Vizela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matheus Pereira · Vizela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Anderson · Vizela |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 45' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 24 | Fouls | 11 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vizela | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Vizela |
| Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
| 57' | 🟥 | Tomás Silva · Vizela |
| 64' | ⚽ | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mateus Quaresma · FC Arouca |
| 84' | 🟨 | Oriol Busquets · FC Arouca |
| 88' | ⚽ | Samuel Essende · Vizela |
| 89' | 🟨 | Samu · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Santos Nascimento · Vizela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Ortiz · Vizela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 262.00 | 1145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1499.49 | 1566.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.62 | 16.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.84 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 3.10 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 25.29 | — |
| state index | -0.87 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |