← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Gustavo Correia
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 83% | 87% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 8.86 | fair |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 6% | 4% | 19.04 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −2.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 69% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica |