← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Mon, Aug 14, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 69% | 72% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 15% | 5.29 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 12% | 13% | 8.35 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +1.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| FC Porto +1.5 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.53 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | João Mário · FC Porto |
| 51' | ⚽ | Godfried Frimpong · Moreirense FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Lawrence Ofori · Moreirense FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
| 68' | 🟨 | Wenderson Galeno · FC Porto |
| 72' | 🟨 | Toni Martínez · FC Porto |
| 74' | ⚽ | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 76' | 🟨 | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonçalo Franco · Moreirense FC |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟨 |
| Fabiano Souza · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nico González · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wendell · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟥 | Wendell · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 44.00 | 2265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1478.40 | 1933.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.67 | 13.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 64.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.20 | 1.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | 1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |