← Primeira Liga 2023-24 · Sun, Aug 13, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 47% | 50% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 25% | 21% | 4.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| FC Arouca −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 65% | 1.68 | value: +10% |
| Over | 42% | 35% | 2.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 10' | 🟨 | Morlaye Sylla · FC Arouca |
| 10' | ⚽ | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 20' | ⚽ | Rafa Mújica · FC Arouca |
| 21' | 🟨 | Kouassi Eboue · FC Arouca |
| 37' | 🟥 | Kouassi Eboue · FC Arouca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 49' | ⚽ | Joao Marques · GD Estoril Praia |
| 57' | ⚽ | Cristo González · FC Arouca |
| 70' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 73' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| ⚽ (og) |
| Volnei Feltes · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Gomes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 1138.00 | 43.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1577.99 | 1464.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.39 | 42.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.99 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.06 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 23.45 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |