← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 44% | 38% | 2.15 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 29% | 35% | 3.47 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Maritimo −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Rafael Brito · Maritimo |
| 15' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 43' | 🟨 | Edgar Costa · Maritimo |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rúben Marques · Maritimo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 66' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Cláudio Winck · Maritimo |
| 71' | 🟨 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 71' | 🟥 | Fábio China · Maritimo |
| 73' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| 🟥 |
| Renê Santos · Maritimo |
| 80' | ⚽ | Joãozinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 83' | ⚽ | Yusuf Bamidele · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.00 |
| coach days | 1060.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 4.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1464.61 | 1467.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.76 | -4.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 7.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.88 | 27.19 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |