← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves win | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
| Boavista win | 31% | 27% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chaves −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Boavista −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 46% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Bruno Langa · Chaves |
| 37' | ⚽ | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 42' | ⚽ | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 46' | ⚽ | Héctor Hernández · Chaves |
| 62' | ⚽ | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 64' | 🟨 | João Teixeira · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bernardo Sousa · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟨 | Guima · Chaves |
| 66' | 🟥 | Guima · Chaves |
| 68' | 🟨 | Bernardo Sousa · Chaves |
| 68' | 🟥 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 20 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 3 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chaves | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira |
| Bernardo Sousa · Chaves |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 81' | ⚽ | Gaius Makouta · Boavista |
| 89' | 🟥 | Issah Abass · Chaves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 845.00 | 542.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1567.87 | 1526.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.15 | 7.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | 0.63 |
| league points | 46.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 27.77 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |