← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, May 26, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 42% | 41% | 2.27 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC +0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| FC Famalicão +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.02 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Rúben Lima · FC Famalicão |
| 12' | ⚽ | Mihai Alexandru Dobre · FC Famalicão |
| 30' | 🟥 | Zaydou Youssouf · FC Famalicão |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mihai Alexandru Dobre · FC Famalicão |
| 65' | 🟨 | Andreas Samaris · Rio Ave FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ukra · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Patrick William · Rio Ave FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Santiago Colombatto · FC Famalicão |
| 82' | ⚽ | Leonardo Ruiz · Rio Ave FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 22 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Famalicão |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sávio · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1028.00 |
| 541.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1521.62 | 1556.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.28 | -13.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 39.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 5.04 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.65 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |