← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 42% | 43% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.24 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Rafik Guitane · GD Estoril Praia |
| 58' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 74' | ⚽ | Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Cassiano · GD Estoril Praia |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bernardo Vital · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Felippe Cardoso · Casa Pia AC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Francisco Geraldes · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Saviour Godwin · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joãozinho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Saviour Godwin · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pedro Álvaro |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 3093.00 |
| 1054.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1499.68 | 1449.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.71 | 14.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.67 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |