← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 70% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.76 | fair |
| FC Famalicão win | 14% | 12% | 7.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Luiz Júnior · FC Famalicão |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 10' | ⚽ | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 18' | 🟨 | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ivo Rodrigues · FC Famalicão |
| 33' | ⚽ | Iván Jaime · FC Famalicão |
| 42' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Santiago Colombatto · FC Famalicão |
| 45' | 🟨 | Santiago Colombatto · FC Famalicão |
| 57' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Porto |
| 66' | 🟨 | Zaydou Youssouf · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 22 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
| 73' | 🟨 | Otavio · FC Famalicão |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Mehdi Taremi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 535.00 |
| 2179.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1561.23 | 1925.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.91 | 8.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 43.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 7.21 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.65 | 26.17 |
| state index | 0.10 | 1.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |