← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Mon, May 15, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Hélder Malheiro
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 36% | 41% | 2.77 | value: +12% |
| FC Arouca win | 34% | 26% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| FC Arouca +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.68 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 23 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |