← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, May 13, 07:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 83% | 88% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 8% | 8.64 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 6% | 4% | 20.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Maritimo −2.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal −2.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 69% | 68% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 2 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.