← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Fri, May 12, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 37% | 43% | 2.62 | value: +13% |
| Boavista win | 34% | 30% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Boavista +0 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 50% | 2.05 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Salvador Agra · Boavista |
| 38' | ⚽ | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 63' | 🟨 | Filipe Ferreira · Boavista |
| 64' | 🟨 | Rafael Bracali · Boavista |
| 64' | 🟨 | Sebastián Pérez · Boavista |
| 64' | ⚽ | Fran Navarro · Gil Vicente FC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Pedro Tiba · Gil Vicente FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Carraça · Gil Vicente FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Róbert Boženík · Boavista |
| 78' | 🟨 | Yusupha Njie · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Boavista |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Henrique Gomes · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 192.00 |
| 527.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.85 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1513.42 | 1522.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.97 | 28.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 6.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 23.82 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |