← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 45% | 36% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 25% | 34% | 3.97 | value: +37% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 56% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 44% | 2.40 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Alejandro Marqués · GD Estoril Praia |
| 22' | 🟨 | Paulo Henrique · CD Santa Clara |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 60' | 🟨 | João Gamboa · GD Estoril Praia |
| 66' | 🟨 | Carlos Eduardo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Matheus Araújo · CD Santa Clara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Tiago Araújo · GD Estoril Praia |
| 89' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Martins · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tiago Santos · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Jordão · CD Santa Clara |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4.20 |
| coach days | 1033.00 | 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1434.81 | 1439.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.35 | -23.73 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 26.19 |
| state index | -0.88 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |