← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 22, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Fábio Veríssimo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 80% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.57 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 6% | 8% | 16.46 | value: +39% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Porto +1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Pacos Ferreira +1.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 10 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estádio da Capital do Móvel |