← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: Cláudio Pereira
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 84% | 91% | 1.13 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 11% | 6% | 9.82 | fair |
| CD Santa Clara win | 4% | 3% | 24.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara −2.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| FC Porto −2.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.71 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Costinha · CD Santa Clara |
| 20' | 🟨 | Bruno Jordão · CD Santa Clara |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ygor Nogueira · CD Santa Clara |
| 33' | 🟨 | Allano · CD Santa Clara |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Mateus Uribe · FC Porto |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pierre Sagna · CD Santa Clara |
| 51' | 🟨 | Iván Marcano · FC Porto |
| 80' | ⚽ | Danny Namaso · FC Porto |
| 89' | 🟨 | André Franco · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kyosuke Tagawa · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 2144.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1932.81 | 1438.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.45 | -46.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 64.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.37 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.63 | 26.50 |
| state index | 1.42 | -1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |