← Primeira Liga 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: Artur Soares Dias
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.25 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 28% | 32% | 3.60 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Maritimo −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Pacos Ferreira −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 50% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 50% | 2.25 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | André Vidigal · Maritimo |
| 36' | 🟨 | Brayan Riascos · Maritimo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Nicolás Gaitán · Pacos Ferreira |
| 42' | ⚽ | Val · Maritimo |
| 52' | 🟨 | João Afonso · Maritimo |
| 62' | 🟨 | Marcelo Carné · Maritimo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Vitor Costa · Maritimo |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Adrián Butzke · Pacos Ferreira |
| 81' | 🟨 | Juan Delgado · Pacos Ferreira |
| 83' | 🟨 | Maracás · Pacos Ferreira |
| 84' | 🟨 | Paulinho Mota · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Estádio dos Barreiros |
| 85' | 🟨 | Vitorino Antunes · Pacos Ferreira |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 135.00 |
| 104.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1448.44 | 1424.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.19 | 1.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.39 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |